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well i was confused 10/20 live posted by Schweig @ Tue, 17 Apr 2012 20:55:05 +0000

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So you think that the-

% chance he raises a smaller flush for value > % chance he decides to bluff here with maybe the ASpade as a blocker or something?



Hmm thinking about this, I would say the latter % is what we have to question. I think the first part, whether he value check raises worse is actually fairly static and possibly negligible. He'd first have to have a smaller flush and also decide to check raise with them - seems fairly unlikely for any reg to do this without significant history.

I think the % chance he bluffs is something that I am fairly uncertain about. I'd probably have to give him the benefit of the doubt without many reads though.


well i was confused 10/20 live posted by don caballero @ Tue, 17 Apr 2012 21:20:15 +0000

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i dont know the villian all that much but he was playing well 3beting a lot i had 4bet him a ton also and he had folded everytime he was obviously tilted by me but he seemed okay to just let me win pots and focuses on the fish. I had won no pots of him that were large or significant



Given this, I really find it hard to believe he's 3betting Axs (besides AQs) here very often against you. If it seems he'd rather avoid you and play against fish, he's not going to take a playable hand like Axs and risk getting 4bet off of it or having to call and play an inflated pot (but still pretty deep) OOP.

Any chance you think he's capable of turning AsAx into a bluff, knowing you can't have the nuts?

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by I3betyoutillyoudie @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 03:01:11 +0000

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i really don't think he shoves flushes that aren't the nutz i mean he knows im pycho but at the same time he doesn't think im bad and we don't really have any history as such

fyi - i called

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by joel @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 03:15:36 +0000

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fyi - i called



And he had...... ??

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by B-rye88 @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 03:45:52 +0000

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i really don't think he shoves flushes that aren't the nutz i mean he knows im pycho but at the same time he doesn't think im bad and we don't really have any history as such

fyi - i called



Especially given the flushes you block I think this is pretty valid. I wrote otherwise above but have reconsidered.

fyi - I want to knowwwwwwwww. Not gonna be surprised if he showed the nuts but still think I would make a call.

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by kerwinty @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 04:07:40 +0000

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by omnimirage @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 06:40:37 +0000

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by pickpokkit @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 07:54:03 +0000

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This is a pretty good one IMO. Its simply pretty hard to know what to do here. In this case the outcome does matter.

They key I think is whether he is capable of checking a flush draw on the turn.

I doubt many good players would do this so therefore it's hard to find a fold here.

I think your ahead and should call.


well i was confused 10/20 live posted by omnimirage @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 08:05:56 +0000

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I actually misread the hand and thought he bet turn for some reason :s Maybe I'll do a real detailed analysis tomorrow to see what had to have gone down for calling/fold to be +EV

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by I3betyoutillyoudie @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 16:03:43 +0000

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[quote
They key I think is whether he is capable of checking a flush draw on the turn.

I doubt many good players would do this so therefore it's hard to find a fold here.
l.[/quote]

I thought there was a reasonable chance he could ck/call with something like A4ss A3ss b/c he's scared of a turn raise idk

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by B-rye88 @ Wed, 18 Apr 2012 18:00:28 +0000

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I thought there was a reasonable chance he could ck/call with something like A4ss A3ss b/c he's scared of a turn raise idk



I agree with this, not because he's scared of a raise (necessarily) but because he has a great hand to x/c turn and either x/f or x/soulread river.

well i was confused 10/20 live posted by I3betyoutillyoudie @ Thu, 19 Apr 2012 15:36:39 +0000

0% VPIP except Blind play discussion posted by thewayimwired @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 01:04:21 +0000

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FWIW, if I remember correctly, Ivey had an insane blind defense number.

100/200 PLO hand posted by thewayimwired @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 01:25:31 +0000

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Poker Stars $100/$200 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $40 Ante - 3 players - View hand 1735906
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $23822.00
BTN: $25770.96
SB: $44873.50

Pre Flop: ($420.00)
BTN raises to $448, 1 fold, BB calls $248

Flop: ($1116.00) 5 Heart T Spade 4 Heart (2 players)
BB checks, BTN bets $733.26, BB raises to $2400, BTN raises to $6000, BB raises to $19111, BTN raises to $25282.96 all in, BB calls $4223 all in

Turn: ($47784.00) 9 Club (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($47784.00) 7 Club (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $47784.00
BB shows Q Diamond T Club K Club 4 Club (two pair, Tens and Fours)
BTN shows 2 Heart Q Heart 3 Club Q Club (a pair of Queens)
BB wins $47779.00
(Rake: $5.00)

I was pretty surprised to see Jman jamming here. Any thoughts? I would not have thought that he had great equity against ben86's 3-bet range on this flop. I guess he's blocking top and bottom set, but there are tens with flushdraw + many overcards, middle set, all kinds of wrap + flushdraw combos. I guess I was a bit surprised to see the hand play out like this. Any ideas?

100/200 PLO hand posted by delcrossb @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 01:27:16 +0000

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Yup, seems pretty good on both ends.

Ninja edit to counter your ninja edit: on a dry flop like this jman can feel pretty comfortable having a wide bluff range which he will balance out by including a lot of SD bound hands with decent equity. ben86 is probably fully capable of bet/3betting this flop as a bluff (notice how small all the raises are) and jman can show up with weaker draws (ie bare NFDs+overs), so having the OESD+overpair is enough to want to get it in against someone who is probably quite wide in this spot.


100/200 PLO hand posted by Schweig @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 01:50:40 +0000

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It will obviously depend a lot on game dynamics but unless Ben86 3-bets the flop like a total maniac then it's a really shit spot to be in with top and a bottom, because you have to commit your entire stack against a range which is pretty strong vs you to reach showdown.

Few people would probably 3-bet/fold anything on this flop in Ben86's spot. I mean, it's a bit too dynamic board to 3bet/fold any hands with equity, given that a lot of hands could have different types of equity and reship and force you off that equity mistakenly e.g he would never 3-bet/fold a hand like bare AA, top pair with overkickers, 54, becuase they will have too much equity from Jman shipping draws, in what is a large pot once he makes it 6k. He would never 3-bet/fold a decent draw because it will have too much equity from Jman shipping made hands.

It's also too dynamic to do it without any equity because opponent might peel the part of his range that you're targeting when you make it this size. I couldn't even imagine a hand you would want to 3-bet here knowing you have clearly not enough equity vs a reshove.

So in Jman's shoes, he should see his 4-bet as having little fold equity bar extreme circumstances. So 4-betting here is basically the same as calling a shove, which gives pot odds of 27000:21000 (double check this), so he needs 43.75%.

Given that Ben86 can have a lot of strong draws, as well as a set, top two, it seems like he is probably shy of this number, but then again the dynamic might be such that Ben does this with some kind of AA hand that is one of the few hands in actual bad shape vs two pair. I don't know, I haven't played these guys, so it is certainly possible if the dynamic has reached that level of aggression.

The situation kinda highlights the trickiness of check-raising in Jman's spot given his stack size. He has given Ben86 the chance of putting in more aggression with a lot of draws that Jman's hand cannot necessarily withstand, and Jman's only real defence is having really strong hands at the top of his range that overcoat Ben86 which don't come about that often.

It is worth noting that Ben86's small raise has given Jman the opportunity to call the flop raise and then pot all non-heart turns, fold heart turns, if he deems Ben86's range to contain mostly hands with heart draws, which I imagine is going to be the case a fair amount of the time. This would actually be the ideal line for the made hand in the made-hand vs draw situation if the hands were face up, but of course that isn't the case and Jman may make a mistake on turns.

100/200 PLO hand posted by delcrossb @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 02:00:17 +0000

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Schweig's post is so much better than anything I could ever come up with I wish I could delete my original post.

Another Classic Hand posted by Schweig @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 02:01:03 +0000

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I will say that raising small isn't really worth the thin value you get versus someone as durrr given that he can do a lot of crazy shit, unless you know that he's going to spazz a decent amount of the time that you can just call it off.

I don't have a clue if that this is the case in this situation. Certainly both the small bet and small-ish raise have introduced a lot of levelling concepts that it will probably depend highly on the history.

Oh, and the chance of him having QJ/87 are very slim given he c/c'd the flop, but it is likely he knows that and that's not what he's trying to rep at all. He may have read the river raise as thin value, thinking that he would raise something more nutted like QJ, TT larger, in which case he could 3-bet for value with a lot of two pairs, or bluff.

100/200 PLO hand posted by thewayimwired @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 03:12:47 +0000

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TYVM for the very insightful commentary. Much appreciated friends.

Deep Stack posted by Schweig @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 03:49:23 +0000

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I noticed it's gone 17 days without any response. It's likely that no one who checks here really knew a specific enough video for your request. You should try the General Discussion forum instead as more people check there.

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