100/200 PLO hand posted by Schweig @ Fri, 20 Apr 2012 01:50:40 +0000

It will obviously depend a lot on game dynamics but unless Ben86 3-bets the flop like a total maniac then it's a really shit spot to be in with top and a bottom, because you have to commit your entire stack against a range which is pretty strong vs you to reach showdown.

Few people would probably 3-bet/fold anything on this flop in Ben86's spot. I mean, it's a bit too dynamic board to 3bet/fold any hands with equity, given that a lot of hands could have different types of equity and reship and force you off that equity mistakenly e.g he would never 3-bet/fold a hand like bare AA, top pair with overkickers, 54, becuase they will have too much equity from Jman shipping draws, in what is a large pot once he makes it 6k. He would never 3-bet/fold a decent draw because it will have too much equity from Jman shipping made hands.

It's also too dynamic to do it without any equity because opponent might peel the part of his range that you're targeting when you make it this size. I couldn't even imagine a hand you would want to 3-bet here knowing you have clearly not enough equity vs a reshove.

So in Jman's shoes, he should see his 4-bet as having little fold equity bar extreme circumstances. So 4-betting here is basically the same as calling a shove, which gives pot odds of 27000:21000 (double check this), so he needs 43.75%.

Given that Ben86 can have a lot of strong draws, as well as a set, top two, it seems like he is probably shy of this number, but then again the dynamic might be such that Ben does this with some kind of AA hand that is one of the few hands in actual bad shape vs two pair. I don't know, I haven't played these guys, so it is certainly possible if the dynamic has reached that level of aggression.

The situation kinda highlights the trickiness of check-raising in Jman's spot given his stack size. He has given Ben86 the chance of putting in more aggression with a lot of draws that Jman's hand cannot necessarily withstand, and Jman's only real defence is having really strong hands at the top of his range that overcoat Ben86 which don't come about that often.

It is worth noting that Ben86's small raise has given Jman the opportunity to call the flop raise and then pot all non-heart turns, fold heart turns, if he deems Ben86's range to contain mostly hands with heart draws, which I imagine is going to be the case a fair amount of the time. This would actually be the ideal line for the made hand in the made-hand vs draw situation if the hands were face up, but of course that isn't the case and Jman may make a mistake on turns.