So you think that the-
% chance he raises a smaller flush for value > % chance he decides to bluff here with maybe the Aas a blocker or something?
Hmm thinking about this, I would say the latter % is what we have to question. I think the first part, whether he value check raises worse is actually fairly static and possibly negligible. He'd first have to have a smaller flush and also decide to check raise with them - seems fairly unlikely for any reg to do this without significant history.
I think the % chance he bluffs is something that I am fairly uncertain about. I'd probably have to give him the benefit of the doubt without many reads though.